Monday, April 16, 2007

Pharma Industry Needs SEZs(part-2)

India is the world's fourth largest pharmaceuticals producer with an 8% share of global production by volume and 1.5% share by value. The industry produces bulk drugs belonging to all major therapeutic groups requiring complicated manufacturing process and has also developed excellent Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) compliant facilities for the production of different dosage forms. India is home to the largest number of pharmaceuticals plants (61) approved by the US FDA outside the US, and the country accounts for the largest number of annual drug filings with the USFDA Export growth over the last five years has been over 20%, with the US being the largest market. In biotechnology, India has already been identified as one of the emerging leaders in the Asia-Pacific region. Several Indian companies have already started producing biotechnology-based drugs for diseases such as cancer and diabetes. Here again, China can be a key competitor.

Given our acknowledged strengths in the pharma industry, it's imperative that we step up the momentum, particularly in manufacture and exports. In this context the importance of SEZs cannot be over emphasized, from the point of view of concentrating scarce management and infrastructure resources on an effective programme rather than spreading them over too thinly. The benefits of SEZs can be optimised through active linkage programmes, adequate social and environmental safeguards, and private sector involvement in their development. Other requisites for a successful SEZs such as excellent connectivity, efficient communication and power facilities and finally good social infra-structure need to be ensured.

The change that allocating large tracts of farm land for SEZs would be detrimental to farmers' interests is some what misplaced - for two reasons: one, as the pace of industrialization picks up, area under agriculture is bound to come down. Also, considering the country's total land area, the proportion allocated for SEZs, both already approved and in the works, is minuscule. The more pertinent issue that needs to be addressed is agriculture productivity, which is extremely poor in India. In any case, the commerce minister has since made it clear that prime agriculture land would not be allocated for SEZs. However, there can be no two opinions about timely and adequate compensation to farmers for land, of whatever kind, acquired for SEZs. Two, any possible misuse of land could be checked by making the approval process more stringent, with applicants providing sufficient proof that their intents are genuine. The onus for this is on various state governments; likewise, on ensuring flexibility in labour laws. If the size of SEZs, in terms of geographical area, is a concern, smaller, sector-specific SEZs can be encouraged to come up in central business districts, as already envisaged in the policy.

In sum, the Indian pharma/biotech industry stands to be well served by SEZs. They will boost manufacturing exports, attract much needed FDI increase foreign exchange earnings and create more jobs. It's possible that some corporates might be drawn to set up SEZs for tax benefits alone, some others might profit from misuse of allotted land. But then there are loop holes in any scheme. Overall the SEZs are sound in principle and, if well executed, could fetch considerable dividends over the long run.

Pharma Industry Needs SEZs(part-2)

India is the world's fourth largest pharmaceuticals producer with an 8% share of global production by volume and 1.5% share by value. The industry produces bulk drugs belonging to all major therapeutic groups requiring complicated manufacturing process and has also developed excellent Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) compliant facilities for the production of different dosage forms. India is home to the largest number of pharmaceuticals plants (61) approved by the US FDA outside the US, and the country accounts for the largest number of annual drug filings with the USFDA Export growth over the last five years has been over 20%, with the US being the largest market. In biotechnology, India has already been identified as one of the emerging leaders in the Asia-Pacific region. Several Indian companies have already started producing biotechnology-based drugs for diseases such as cancer and diabetes. Here again, China can be a key competitor.

Given our acknowledged strengths in the pharma industry, it's imperative that we step up the momentum, particularly in manufacture and exports. In this context the importance of SEZs cannot be over emphasized, from the point of view of concentrating scarce management and infrastructure resources on an effective programme rather than spreading them over too thinly. The benefits of SEZs can be optimised through active linkage programmes, adequate social and environmental safeguards, and private sector involvement in their development. Other requisites for a successful SEZs such as excellent connectivity, efficient communication and power facilities and finally good social infra-structure need to be ensured.

The change that allocating large tracts of farm land for SEZs would be detrimental to farmers' interests is some what misplaced - for two reasons: one, as the pace of industrialization picks up, area under agriculture is bound to come down. Also, considering the country's total land area, the proportion allocated for SEZs, both already approved and in the works, is minuscule. The more pertinent issue that needs to be addressed is agriculture productivity, which is extremely poor in India. In any case, the commerce minister has since made it clear that prime agriculture land would not be allocated for SEZs. However, there can be no two opinions about timely and adequate compensation to farmers for land, of whatever kind, acquired for SEZs. Two, any possible misuse of land could be checked by making the approval process more stringent, with applicants providing sufficient proof that their intents are genuine. The onus for this is on various state governments; likewise, on ensuring flexibility in labour laws. If the size of SEZs, in terms of geographical area, is a concern, smaller, sector-specific SEZs can be encouraged to come up in central business districts, as already envisaged in the policy.

In sum, the Indian pharma/biotech industry stands to be well served by SEZs. They will boost manufacturing exports, attract much needed FDI increase foreign exchange earnings and create more jobs. It's possible that some corporates might be drawn to set up SEZs for tax benefits alone, some others might profit from misuse of allotted land. But then there are loop holes in any scheme. Overall the SEZs are sound in principle and, if well executed, could fetch considerable dividends over the long run.

Pharma Industry Needs SEZs(part-1)

Why pharma industry needs SEZs

(Kiran Mazumadar Shaw)

“Given our acknowledged strengths in the pharma industry, it's imperative that we step up the momentum, particularly in manufacture and exports”

The move to establish a slew of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) has generated considerable heat across the country with critics expressing apprehensions that these enclaves will be detrimental to farmers' interests, further exacerbate regional imbalances, lead to loss of tax revenue, and could result in allotted land being used for profiteering in real estate.

While any major policy initiative is bound to provoke debate in a democratic set-up, the current row over SEZs has raised fears among corporates whether the, " proposal would be put on the back-burner for reasons of political expediency or its provisions so diluted as to defeat its very purpose: lure foreign investment, boost exports, and create new jobs. Thankfully, the prime minister; an economist himself, has been quick to make the government's stand clear by publicly stating that the SEZs are “here to stay”. It's instructive, in this context, to note that thirty years ago, 80 SEZs in 30 countries generated barely $6 billion in exports and employed about 1 million people. Today, 3,000 SEZs operate in 120 countries and account for over $600 billion in exports and 50 million direct jobs.

SEZs are of particular interest to India's pharmaceutical industry, both in absolute terms and in relation to the competition, particularly from China whose meteoric rise is an economic superpower in Asia can be attributed at least in part to its foresight in setting up SEZs some 30 years ago. Coming bundled, as they do, with an attractive tax environment, world-class infrastructure, decentralized administration and a liberal labour environment. China's SEZs have, overall, been a resounding success. The first SEZs, a sprawling 100,000 acre complex in Shenzhen, has alone managed to attract over $30 billion in direct investment and the 49 state level zones across China account for more than 70% of all FDI enterprises in the country. Beijing is fast becoming China's leading biotech centre, boasting several biotech parks designed to meet US FDA standards.

The pharma sector in China recorded an - annual growth rate of I6.7% betweenI978 and 2OO3.Contribution of exports (nearly $ 14.billion) to China's pharma industry was close t0 29% in 2oo5.Already a major competitor to India in the export of APIs (active pharmaceutical ingredients), China is set to run India close in other pharma segments as well. It's making rapid strides in biotechnology, for instance, thanks to a combination of beneficial policy changes, increased programme funding, low labour costs and reorganization of the science and technology system. Chinese bio- generic manufacturers already market 361 recombinant biogenerics and 25 biotech drugs. China currently produces eight of the world's top 10 genetically engineered drugs or vaccines. The revenue from biopharmaceutical production in China reached levels of $4.2 billion in 2005, up from $860 million in 2000, and it's growing at 20% to 30% per year.

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Play Safe(part-3)

Yet, don't get too bogged down by your family's preferences. There are plenty of father-son combos out there where one deals only in metals and the other only in farm commodities. Basically, you need to remember that those old days of information arbitrage are long over. What with the Net, TV and SMS, everyone knows everything the minute it occurs anywhere in the world. That is both good news and bad. The good news is that there is little likelihood of anyone taking the market for a ride on the back of insider information. The flip side is that there are really very few opportunities left to beat the market and make a quick profit.

Once your list of commodities is ready (I'd suggest keep it to less than 10), you need to get a feel of how volatile they are. Ask your broker. Some, such as guar, pepper, metals and gold, can be highly volatile, with prices moving very sharply and very frequently, others, such as sugar or potatoes are relatively more stable. If you hate a nail-biting finish to every day, then opt for a commodity that is more placid. Of course, even those quiet waters can easily get turbulent. So you can't really afford to relax. Also less, risk means less chance to strike rich. It's a good idea to watch and learn the price behaviour of a market for several weeks or longer before you put on your first trade.

By now your list should have a handful of commodities left. But you need to do one last final check. Make sure there is plenty of liquidity in the commodities of your choice. Otherwise, you will find no buyers when you want to exit the market. That can be quite a quagmire and make profits a distant dream. Again, ask your broker.

The commodity market you wish to trade in should be understandable, affordable, of acceptable risk and popular. As they say, anything that begins badly ends worse. Choosing the right market will keep you safe.

Play Safe(part-2)

Markets vary in affordability. For instance, futures contracts in spices, sugar and grains tend to be relatively affordable, while bullion, energy and metals are more expensive. Generally, two factors make a futures market expensive to trade: the value of the contract and the volatility of the contract. You need to check both.

Find out from your broker what the initial margin requirements are for the commodities you're interested in, as well as the special margin needed to keep your trading position open. Some brokers may require an added cushion as extra insurance. At no point should you stretch your budget to fit in a commodity. Remember Rule Number One? Your budget is cast in stone. You really can't afford to lose any more.

Once you have the list of commodities whose margin requirements you can afford, focus on those that you know or have ways of knowing more. Tap family and friends. If your family has interests in real estate, for instance, then it may be easier for you to track trends in base metals. Similarly, if you know some exporters of spices or grains or coffee, that is your cue. If your cousin works in a tyre company, rubber may be a tad easier to understand.

All these people can alert you to tiny changes in the spot market. Simply focus on the few commodities with which you are confident you have some natural linkage.

Play Safe(part-1)

Play safe: Choose the right commodity market

(Nidhi Nath Sriniwas)

NOW that you have figured out your trading kitty, it's time to decide the market in which you would like to trade. That can be exciting. If someone casually mentions he trades in gold, steel ingots or crude oil and behaves as if he doesn't enjoy watching your eyes widen, he is pretending. The oomph factor is just too much.

But though it is natural to get attracted to commodities you can name drop later, I'd advise caution. A wrong step at this stage may well mean a quick end to your career as a trader. When it comes to finding your favourite commodity markets, choose one that you understand or with which you have some kind of link. That is Rule Number Two.

For some lucky ones the choice is quite easy. Like those irritatingly single-minded kids who knew in class two they would become world-famous heart surgeons or chess wizards, they know exactly which commodities work best for them. Many more consult the family astrologer. Shani has a lot to answer for, as any metal or oil trader would tell you.

But what should you do if "gut feels" and janam patri don't really work for you? Here is the nitty-gritty of making the right choice. First, naturally, is money. Ask your broker to give you a list of the margin money requirements for each of the more than 60 commodities being traded on the online exchanges. Since you know the size of your kitty, you can immediately cross out those which don't fit your budget.

Contrarian Strategy(part-2)

However, a recent study by Citigroup comparing returns from the two strategies – “going with-the-consensus” and “against-the-consensus” - in all Asian markets, excluding Japan, suggests that it pays to go with the latter.

Likening consensus to "a blind guide in a minefield", Citigroup notes that a model portfolio based on consensus in these markets has underperformed the benchmark by 3.9% since June 1995, while the portfolio, which goes against the consensus, has outperformed the benchmark by 21.1%.

Investors in China, Indonesia and Taiwan would have gained from going with the consensus. Countries where investors would have made money by going against consensus include Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Singapore.

Indian investors, the report suggests, could have done well, if they had played the contrarian card, which means buy when the general sentiment is weak and vice-versa.

The four-year Bull Run in Indian equities, which has seen some sharp corrections intermittently during the period, has presented some opportunities to go against the consensus. These include the May 2004 crash, when the Sensex fell over 1000 point’s intra-day, after the Left-backed United Progressive Alliance came into the power.

A more recent incident is the sell-off in May 2006, following which the markets rebounded to an all-time high. However, unlike May 2004, the rebound in May 2006 was not broad-based, with the mid-cap segment continuing to lag the blue chips since then.